New Bundesliga results pattern emerges after restart
While the likes of the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A are still gearing up to resume their 2019-20 seasons, the Bundesliga is powering towards it’s finishing line.
We’ve already enjoyed two rounds of action in the Bundesliga since football restarted in Germany.
There have been 18 matches over the past two weeks in the Bundesliga, and a new eye-catching pattern has emerged with regard to results.
— Bundesliga English (@Bundesliga_EN) May 16, 2020
Now that the dust has settled…
— Bundesliga English (@Bundesliga_EN) May 24, 2020
Incredibly, there have only been three home wins in the Bundesliga in the past two weeks.
At the same time, there have been 5 draws and 10 away wins in this period.
These results are remarkable, as the betting odds before these games projected between 8-9 home wins.
16.6% – Since the Bundesliga returned on May 16th, home sides have managed to win just three of the 18 matches played over the last two weeks (16.6%) – before the break in play, the win % amongst home sides was 43.3%. "Advantage"? pic.twitter.com/1bY4IxBotC
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) May 24, 2020
Bundesliga home teams had 2 wins in 9 games this weekend (2 draws, 5 losses). 🇩🇪
That’s 3 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses for Bundesliga home teams the past two weeks without fans.
SPI & betting odds projected 8-9 home wins over the two weeks. 🤷♂️
— Paul Carr (@PaulCarr) May 24, 2020
Bayern & Borussia Dortmund have bucked trend
For the record, the only three clubs to have won home matches since football restarted are Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin.
On Friday night, Hertha won the Berlin derby 4-0 against Union.
Bayern thrashed Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2 at the Allianz Arena on Saturday.
A week earlier, BVB beat Schalke 4-0 at the Signal Iduna Park in the derby.
Why have there been so many away wins?
The go-to explanation for these recent results in the Bundesliga is that teams are struggling to impress without their home fans.
Two factors could be at play here.
Firstly, fans drive on their teams through their chanting and support.
Secondly, home fans can help influence the referee into giving decisions to their teams.
Should we be surprised with the amount of away wins?
Last weekend, the Daily Mail revealed the findings of a report into the effect of home advantage in predicting the outcomes of games.
The Mail announced that “a new study has revealed that such an advantage does not exist when played in front of no fans”. Going into the details, the Mail revealed:
The study, which analysed all 191 competitive matches behind closed doors across Europe since the Second World War, showed that home teams won just 36 per cent of matches compared with 46 per cent in front of their supporters.
Away teams, meanwhile, won 26 per cent of the time with fans but saw their success soar to 34 per cent when behind closed doors. The difference was still the case when factoring in the relative strengths of the teams.